Shared under ten

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This company faces a major challenge in the coming years

The analysts at Aandelenondereentientje give the stock the benefit of the doubt by taking a modest position. If the results disappoint, we can quickly withdraw. However, if the optimism that prevails in our team proves justified and the price rises, we will reassess our strategy. After conversion to euros, the price of the stock is €1.58, and we buy 400 shares. Don’t forget that we are currently analyzing more promising stocks for our portfolio; so make sure you leave enough financial room for the other opportunities that are coming.

The energy transition takes time, effort and money. On the British stock exchange, Centrica shares have had a 2024 stock market year to forget as quickly as possible. After a weaker period in the autumn, the price of this energy giant recovered in the last weeks of last year to just below the levels of 1 January 2024. These are therefore challenging times for an energy company like this. The suppliers of natural gas and electricity are all involved in the energy transition, in other words the transition to sustainable energy sources. The investments in green energy cost a lot of money, without any guarantee of success at the end of the day. Centrica has promised better results in the future, but will have to keep that promise. Pending improvement in the figures, we are taking a half position with this share. The chances of a significant increase in the share price in the short or medium term will only increase when the first swallow proves that summer has arrived.

Profile

The UK electricity sector has undergone major changes in recent years, with a significant reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels such as coal and an accelerated shift to renewables. This transition period is still in full swing, leaving the energy sector in choppy waters. The UK government has set an ambitious target of fully decarbonising the energy sector by 2035. This includes deploying up to 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030, 70GW of solar capacity by 2035 and up to 24GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.

Some of the journey has already been completed. The UK has more than halved the amount of electricity it generates from fossil fuels, but gas still accounts for the largest share of the country’s energy supply at 28%. A recent report found that by 2024, the UK’s electricity supply will be cleaner than ever, with wind and solar power reaching their highest ever output.

Centrica operates in this rapidly changing environment. Centrica plc operates as an integrated energy company in the UK, Ireland and a number of other countries through subsidiaries including British Gas Services & Solutions, British Gas Energy, Centrica Business Solutions, Bord Gáis Energy, Energy Marketing & Trading and others. It supplies gas and electricity to residential, commercial, industrial and small business customers, including associated services. Centrica has grown to be the only truly vertically integrated energy company in the UK, making it a central player in the energy sector’s transition to Net Zero.

Numbers

Centrica did not report quarterly results, so the latest we have are for the first half of 2024, when the company said it delivered a good financial performance in a more normalised environment. Adjusted operating profit for the period was £1.0bn, taking into account the unwinding of unrealised hedges from 2023 and a write-down or impairment of its nuclear investments. Free cash flow of £0.8bn (H1 2023: £1.4bn) also reflected dividends received from those nuclear investments.

The balance sheet remained strong, with an adjusted net cash position of £3.2bn compared with £2.7bn at the end of 2023. In line with the progressive dividend policy, the interim dividend per share was increased to 1.5p and the share buyback programme was extended by £200m. This programme is expected to be completed around February 2025. It is not yet certain whether a new programme will be announced.

Strengths

  • The energy transition offers long-term opportunities.
  • A strong balance sheet provides room for further investments.
  • The increase in the interim dividend underlines management’s confidence in its own abilities.

Weaknesses

  • A high beta indicates relatively large price fluctuations.
  • Limited transparency at Centrica Energy is putting pressure on the share price.
  • The ambitious targets for 2028 have yet to be achieved.

Conclusion

The problem with the energy sector in general and Centrica in particular is that there are still many question marks waiting to be answered. Needless to say, the energy transition is an ambitious project that requires heavy investment. Centrica’s green energy-focused growth and investment strategy means that investment needs to be increased significantly in the coming years, to an annual capital expenditure of £600m-£800m by 2028. These types of energy storage projects are crucial to decarbonising the economy and also to protecting the UK from shortages and painful fluctuations in energy prices. The extension of the share buyback programme and the increase in the interim dividend provide some room for optimism. Ultimately, the cool figures should confirm that Centrica is on the right track. The analysts at UBS have given a buy recommendation from the current £1.38 to £1.75 , which offers an upside potential of almost 27%! We give the stock the benefit of the doubt and take a half position. If the figures turn out to be mediocre, we can choose the hare path, but if the optimism is confirmed, the price will run and we can make the next decision.

Centrica in figures  

Earnings per share
  • 2023: £0,22
  • 2024: £0,20
  • 2025: £0,26
Course information
  • Current rate: £1.38
  • Price-earnings ratio: 6.3
  • Highest price in the last 12 months: £1,579
  • Lowest price in the last 12 months: £1,129
Dividend
  • Benefit: £0.04
  • Dividend yield: 3%
Financial results
  • 2023 revenue: £27.75 billion
  • EBITDA: £2.22 billion
  • Market capitalisation: £7 billion

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Let’s be honest — it does look good when you’re trading “shares under ten” and you’ve got Rolls-Royce in your portfolio. Despite the prestigious name, this stock fully qualifies as a true penny stock. Shares Under Ten is adding 2,000 shares to the portfolio at the current price of around 97 pence. 5-Year Share Price Performance – Rolls-Royce Holdings plc. Company Profile The Rolls-Royce brand is, of course, best known for its luxury cars — but many may not realise that the automotive business has long been owned by BMW. Rolls-Royce Holdings plc, founded in 1884 and headquartered in London, operates independently and focuses on engineering and power systems. The company is structured into four divisions: Civil Aerospace, Power Systems, Defence, and New Markets. The Civil Aerospace division designs, manufactures, and services engines for large commercial aircraft, regional jets, and business aviation. The Power Systems division develops and sells integrated power and propulsion solutions for marine, defence, and selected industrial sectors. The Defence division supplies engines for military transport aircraft, patrol aircraft, and naval propulsion. The New Markets division focuses on small modular reactors (SMRs) and new electric energy solutions, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. The New Markets division is expected to play a key role in the global energy transition. Rolls-Royce is working to accelerate the launch of a new generation of mini nuclear reactors, a development fast-tracked by the ongoing energy crisis. While these SMRs aren’t expected to be operational before the early 2030s, management is eager to speed up the process, especially as Western nations seek to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels following the invasion of Ukraine.   However, engineers within the company have expressed frustration with the slow pace of regulatory approval in the UK, arguing that the government’s process for reviewing reactor safety is unnecessarily burdensome. Rolls-Royce aims to build SMRs that generate around 470 megawatts of power — just one-seventh the output of a large-scale nuclear plant, but at roughly one-twelfth the cost. The UK government has stated that the company’s technology is entirely new and must therefore undergo thorough scrutiny. Rolls-Royce engineers, however, point out that the technology is based on decades of experience in nuclear-powered submarines, a proven and extensively tested field.   Rolls-Royce cannot be acquired without government approval. The UK government holds a so-called “golden share,” which grants it special veto rights. This share does not offer profit participation or capital rights, but allows government representatives to attend general meetings and block specific strategic moves — such as takeover bids — that could affect national interests. Financials The UK’s most well-known engineering firm was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, as airlines pay Rolls-Royce based on the number of flight hours logged by its engines. Given these extraordinary circumstances, FY2020 and FY2021 are not considered reliable indicators of the company’s underlying performance. In 2021, Rolls-Royce reported £414 million in underlying operating profit, a sharp turnaround from a loss the previous year. Growth in the Power Systems and Defence divisions contributed significantly to this financial improvement. However, the company also reported a free cash outflow of £1.5 billion from continuing operations in the same year. CEO Warren East commented on the results: “We have improved our financial performance, met our short-term commitments, secured new business, and made important strategic progress during the year. While challenges remain, we are increasingly confident about the future and the significant commercial opportunities presented by the energy transition.” Rolls-Royce’s credit profile has improved since the onset of the pandemic, and its exposure to the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains limited. As a result, Moody’s upgraded the company’s outlook from negative to stable. Pros Strong visibility and predictability of earnings Stable margins in the Defence division New CEO Warren East is aiming to bring fresh momentum to the company Cons Loss of market share in the business jet segment Disappointing cash flow development High R&D costs for new engine programmes Conclusion We are not particularly enthusiastic about this stock. 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Third-Party Analyst Ratings for Rolls-Royce.   Globally, twenty analysts currently cover Rolls-Royce Holdings, and the consensus view is that the stock could gain around 28% over the next 12 to 18 months. At Shares Under Ten, we believe the share price has likely found a bottom, and we’re taking this opportunity to add the stock to our portfolio. Naturally, we’ll be monitoring developments closely. A takeover seems highly unlikely under current circumstances. Rolls-Royce plays a vital role in the UK defence sector, and the government holds a golden share that gives it veto power over any unwanted acquisition. In addition, ceding control over Rolls-Royce’s expertise in modular nuclear reactors would run counter to the UK’s long-term energy policy. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been a strong advocate for nuclear energy and clearly sees the company’s know-how as a strategic national asset — especially amid the current energy crisis.Takeover rumours have surfaced before. Rolls-Royce was the subject of M&A speculation both in 2015 and again in 2020. However, following a series of profit warnings in 2015, the stock price fell by around 75%, and its recovery

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Update

Weekly Update: Volatility Persists Despite Trade Agreements

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Update

Weekly Update: Nuclear Energy and Earnings Season Fireworks

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